International trade in goods |
I often tell the cansim Statistics Canada series contains treasures we often find in small doses ... By cons, it played tricks on me with incompatible data on international trade ... But there is an alternative which was kindly pointed out to me by Renaud Gignac and Ianik Marcil, the Databank of Official Statistics on Québec (BDSO). It is thanks to this data I could take this post ...
The following graph shows the evolution of international merchandise trade balance (blue line with the left scale, derived from data on international trade BDSO) as well as the value of the Canadian dollar against the United States dollar UNite (red line with the right scale, according to the data are from the Bank of Canada).
We can see that Quebec has a trade surplus from 1993 to 2004, when the Canadian dollar was below $ 0.80 in the United States and has experienced only losses when the value of the Canadian dollar exceeded that amount. In fact the relationship between surprise the value of the Canadian dollar against the United States dollar and the merchandise trade balance is so strong that the correlation coefficient between these two factors reached -0.94, which is huge. However, this does not mean that the value of the Canadian dollar is the only factor that explains the evolution of international merchandise trade balance. Think for example of the sharp increase in competition from low-wage countries (especially China, which joined the World Trade Organization in late 2001). Similarly, the decline surprise in value of the Canadian dollar in 2012 and 2013 did not reduce the trade deficit. For cons, the data for the first five months of 2014 show a decrease in the deficit compared to the same month of 2013, with an even lower dollar ($ 0.94 at time of writing this text) ... Moreover, the rise amazing of Quebec's GDP in the first quarter of 2014 (0.6%, equivalent to 2.4% on an annual basis) "is mainly due to an improvement in the trade balance, while spending households stagnated and the fixed investment was down a second consecutive quarter, "according to the Statistical Institute of Quebec (see page 7).
In short, these data confirm what I've been saying for years that Quebec pays dearly membership of a petro-state that sees the value of its currency vary as the price of oil ...
The following table shows the evolution of the international trading total balance of total merchandise (first line) and one of the main types of goods exported and imported by Québec between its highest surplus last 25 (2001) and deficit (2013) years (and probably of all time).
The "2013" column, we can see that the negative $ 17.7 billion in oil and gasoline represents 77.6% of the total deficit of $ 22.8 billion this year. If we add the deficit of the balance of $ "Cars" and "light trucks, vans and SUVs" 8.9 billion, surprise we see that these four categories of expenditure deficit of $ 26.6 billion and, without these deficits, the international merchandise trade balance was positive in Quebec that year of $ 3.8 billion! This allows us to see how our love of individual transport is costly for Quebec (in addition to being for the quality of its environment).
The "Difference" column m GAINST us that the three product categories that contributed most to the deterioration of the deficit ($ 12.5 billion to nearly surprise $ 31 billion, or over 40% of it) are also associated with personal transportation. The table also shows that the trade surplus of historical achievements of Quebec industry, newsprint, saw its trade surplus melted nearly 65%, from more than $ 4 billion in 2001 to less $ 1.5 billion surprise in 2013 Even our flagship industry, the aircraft, saw its surplus reduced by 30%, contributing more than $ 2 billion of the decline. Not shown in the table, it is worth noting that the softwood lumber has also lost ground, its surplus from $ 1.8 billion to just over $ 760 million, due to the dispute surprise over softwood work between Canada and the United States (between 2001 and 2006, mainly) and then the collapse of the construction industry in the United States beginning in 2008.
The only notable surprise consolations are on the side of industry and Minerals
I often tell the cansim Statistics Canada series contains treasures we often find in small doses ... By cons, it played tricks on me with incompatible data on international trade ... But there is an alternative which was kindly pointed out to me by Renaud Gignac and Ianik Marcil, the Databank of Official Statistics on Québec (BDSO). It is thanks to this data I could take this post ...
The following graph shows the evolution of international merchandise trade balance (blue line with the left scale, derived from data on international trade BDSO) as well as the value of the Canadian dollar against the United States dollar UNite (red line with the right scale, according to the data are from the Bank of Canada).
We can see that Quebec has a trade surplus from 1993 to 2004, when the Canadian dollar was below $ 0.80 in the United States and has experienced only losses when the value of the Canadian dollar exceeded that amount. In fact the relationship between surprise the value of the Canadian dollar against the United States dollar and the merchandise trade balance is so strong that the correlation coefficient between these two factors reached -0.94, which is huge. However, this does not mean that the value of the Canadian dollar is the only factor that explains the evolution of international merchandise trade balance. Think for example of the sharp increase in competition from low-wage countries (especially China, which joined the World Trade Organization in late 2001). Similarly, the decline surprise in value of the Canadian dollar in 2012 and 2013 did not reduce the trade deficit. For cons, the data for the first five months of 2014 show a decrease in the deficit compared to the same month of 2013, with an even lower dollar ($ 0.94 at time of writing this text) ... Moreover, the rise amazing of Quebec's GDP in the first quarter of 2014 (0.6%, equivalent to 2.4% on an annual basis) "is mainly due to an improvement in the trade balance, while spending households stagnated and the fixed investment was down a second consecutive quarter, "according to the Statistical Institute of Quebec (see page 7).
In short, these data confirm what I've been saying for years that Quebec pays dearly membership of a petro-state that sees the value of its currency vary as the price of oil ...
The following table shows the evolution of the international trading total balance of total merchandise (first line) and one of the main types of goods exported and imported by Québec between its highest surplus last 25 (2001) and deficit (2013) years (and probably of all time).
The "2013" column, we can see that the negative $ 17.7 billion in oil and gasoline represents 77.6% of the total deficit of $ 22.8 billion this year. If we add the deficit of the balance of $ "Cars" and "light trucks, vans and SUVs" 8.9 billion, surprise we see that these four categories of expenditure deficit of $ 26.6 billion and, without these deficits, the international merchandise trade balance was positive in Quebec that year of $ 3.8 billion! This allows us to see how our love of individual transport is costly for Quebec (in addition to being for the quality of its environment).
The "Difference" column m GAINST us that the three product categories that contributed most to the deterioration of the deficit ($ 12.5 billion to nearly surprise $ 31 billion, or over 40% of it) are also associated with personal transportation. The table also shows that the trade surplus of historical achievements of Quebec industry, newsprint, saw its trade surplus melted nearly 65%, from more than $ 4 billion in 2001 to less $ 1.5 billion surprise in 2013 Even our flagship industry, the aircraft, saw its surplus reduced by 30%, contributing more than $ 2 billion of the decline. Not shown in the table, it is worth noting that the softwood lumber has also lost ground, its surplus from $ 1.8 billion to just over $ 760 million, due to the dispute surprise over softwood work between Canada and the United States (between 2001 and 2006, mainly) and then the collapse of the construction industry in the United States beginning in 2008.
The only notable surprise consolations are on the side of industry and Minerals
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